Azerbaijan, the host of the COP29 global climate summit, will see a large expansion of fossil gas production in the next decade, a new report has revealed.
Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gas company, Socar, and its partners are set to raise the country’s annual gas production from 37 billion cubic metres (bcm) today to 49bcm by 2033. Socar also recently agreed to increase gas exports to the European Union by 17% by 2026.
The new report, produced by Urgewald and CEE Bankwatch, found Azerbaijan was set to increase its gas production by a third in the next decade, with fossil fuel companies forecast to spend $41.4bn (£31.9bn) on the country’s gas fields. Socar alone spent almost $300m on exploration for new oil and gas between 2022 and 2024, according to the report.
The analysis is based on data from Rystad Energy, the industry’s leading provider. Burning of the expected gas production would produce about 780 million tonnes of CO2, more than double the annual emissions of the UK.
Socar works with some of the world’s biggest fossil fuel companies, including BP, TotalEnergies, the Russian oil giant Tatneft and the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company Adnoc. The CEO of Adnoc, Sultan Al Jaber, was president of COP28 in Dubai, where nations failed to agree to “phase out” fossil fuels, as many wanted, instead choosing the weaker ambition of “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.
Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, told a climate conference in April: “Having oil and gas deposits is not our fault. It’s a gift from God.” Aliyez appoints Socar’s management board and was vice-president of Socar until he succeeded his father as the country’s president in 2003. Azerbaijan’s ecology and natural resources minister, Mukhtar Babayev, will run COP29. He previously worked for Socar for 26 years until 2018. Rovshan Najaf, the president of Socar, is part of the COP29 organising committee.
Azerbaijan’s economy is heavily dependent on fossil fuel income, which makes up 90% of export revenues and 60% of state revenues, according to the IEA.
In 2023 Socar pushed 97% of its capital expenditure into oil and gas projects, the report found. The company launched a “green energy division” a few weeks after Azerbaijan was appointed as COP29 host, promising investments in wind, solar and carbon capture technologies. But according to the report, Socar’s renewable operations remain insignificant.
Azerbaijan’s climate action plan was rated “critically insufficient” by Climate Action Tracker (CAT) in September. “Azerbaijan is among a tiny group of countries that has weakened its climate target [and] the country is doubling down on fossil fuel extraction,” said the CAT analysts.
The report also highlighted accusations of human rights abuses and corruption in Azerbaijan. The European court of human rights found the country had violated the European convention on human rights 263 times since 2001, including three instances of torture and 30 cases of inhuman and degrading treatment.
Freedom House ranks Azerbaijan among the least free countries in the world in relation to political rights, independent media and civil liberties, below Russia and Belarus. Transparency International rated Azerbaijan as the second-worst nation for public sector corruption in eastern Europe and central Asia in 2022.