Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have reached a record high in 2024, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project science team.
The 2024 Global Carbon Budget projects fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of 37.4 billion metric tons, up 0.8% from 2023 (38.1 billion metric tons excluding the cement carbonation sink).
Despite the urgent need to cut emissions to slow climate change, the researchers say there is still “no sign” that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions.
With projected emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) of 4.2 billion metric tons, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024, up from 40.6 billion metric tons last year.
Other key findings from the 2024 Global Carbon Budget include:
- Globally, emissions from different fossil fuels in 2024 are projected to increase: coal (0.2%), oil (0.9%), gas (2.4%). These contribute 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil CO2 emissions respectively. Given the uncertainty in the projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024.
- China’s emissions (32% of the global total) are projected to marginally increase by 0.2%, although the projected range includes a possible decrease in emissions.
- US emissions (13% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 0.6%.
- India’s emissions (8% of the global total) are projected to increase by 4.6%.
- European Union emissions (7% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 3.8%.
- Emissions in the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1%.
- International aviation and shipping (3% of the global total, and counted separately from national/regional totals) are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, but remain below their 2019 pre-pandemic level by 3.5%.
- Globally, emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) have decreased by 20% in the past decade, but are set to rise in 2024.
- Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and afforestation (new forests) is offsetting about half of the permanent deforestation emissions.
- Current levels of technology-based carbon dioxide removal (excluding nature-based means such as reforestation) only account for about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels.
- Atmospheric CO2 levels are set to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, 2.8 parts per million above 2023, and 52% above pre-industrial levels.
- The effects of the temporary El Niño climate event also led to a reduction in carbon absorption by ecosystems on land (known as the land CO2 “sink”) in 2023, which is projected to recover as El Niño ended by the second quarter of 2024.
- Emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which persisted in 2024) and intense drought in Brazil.
- The land and ocean CO2 sinks combined continued to take up around half of the total CO2 emissions, despite being negatively impacted by climate change.