A new study led by researchers from ETH Zurich and Vrije Universiteit Brussel and published in The Cryosphere provides the most comprehensive projections to date, projecting the future of over 200,000 glaciers—excluding those in Greenland and Antarctica—under the newest climate scenarios.
“In the most optimistic, low-emission scenario, glaciers are expected to lose 25% to 29% of their mass by 2100. However, under a high-emission scenario, that figure rises significantly, with up to 46% to 54% of global glacier mass projected to vanish.”
The study reveals that glacier loss will vary significantly by region. Glaciers in the European Alps are among the most vulnerable, with projections suggesting more than 75% volume loss—and possible complete disappearance—under high-emission scenarios. Meanwhile, polar regions such as Arctic Canada, Iceland, and Svalbard are expected to retain a larger part of their glacier mass through the end of the century, though they, too, will face considerable loss.