Last week, a strong typhoon left a trail of destruction across the Philippines, Taiwan and China. Super Typhoon Gaemi began as a tropical storm but intensified rapidly, leaving at least 65 people dead and triggering environmental fears after it sank an oil tanker in Manila Bay.
The Philippines was hard hit. More than 470 millimeters of rain fell in 24 hours in some regions. The intense storm affected more than 3.3 million Filipinos and forced more than 1 million to leave their homes.
Why was it so bad? President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had a clear view, saying: “This is what the effects of climate change are.”
Climate change certainly played a role. The typhoon intensified fast over very warm seas, reaching top wind speeds of 230 kilometers per hour. Early analysis indicates the storm was likely strengthened by climate change, given the backdrop of the warmest ocean temperatures on record.
Manila is one of the densest cities in the world, housing more than 42,000 people per square kilometer. An estimated 15 million people now live in the metropolitan Manila region—ten times the population in 1950. Several large rivers and about 30 tributaries run through the city.
As the city has grown, concrete surfaces have multiplied and green space has shrunk. Gutters, stormwater drains and flood management infrastructure have not kept pace.
Intense rainfall in the catchments forced dam managers to open floodgates, compounding flooding from urban rainfall.
Floodwaters carry debris and waste through cities and homes. When they recede, they leave behind a higher risk of disease.
Flood damage is projected to worsen by the end of the decade, as urbanization continues without enough infrastructure investment.
The Philippines government claims poor waste management contributed to the flooding, saying dumped garbage blocked waterways and clogged drainage systems.
Certainly, poor waste management can make flooding worse. But we cannot simply say the scale of this disaster is due to waste management issues, just as we can’t say climate change was solely to blame. Sprawling, wide-reaching disasters like this have many causes.
We’re starting to see evidence climate-boosted disasters hit people in emerging urban centers harder. Typhoons are at their most lethal when they strike fast-growing megacities in emerging economies.